Ed Crooks has written a very enjoyable review (registration required) in this weekend's Financial Times of several new books about the prospects for American economic recovery. He paints each of them – The Next American Economy, by William
Holstein, The Comeback: How Innovation Will Restore the
American Dream, by Gary Shapiro, Make It In America: The
Case for Reinventing the Economy, by Andrew Liveris, and Advantage: How
American Innovation Can Overcome the Asian Challenge, by Adam
Segal – as examples of a familiar genre. That is the 'how can the US overcome the challenge of X's bid for economic supremacy,?' the challenger for the previous generation being Japan, and for the current lot, China.
Some of those books were dire, and I'm not massively encouraged by the FT review to read any of the new generations. Ed Crooks writes:
“None
of the books is perfect. They mix fresh and thought-provoking insights
with tired political talking points. They praise the authors’
achievements, in passages that must be more rewarding to write than to
read. They share a perplexing fascination with the work of The New York
Times columnist Thomas Friedman, and they are ready to criticise
economists while apparently knowing little about what they actually
think.”
He does say each has its good points, and one should always read with a mind open to new ideas. However, the fundamental flaw with this whole genre is the idea that countries are in a race with winners and losers. When it comes to economies, each can win. One of my least favourites was Lester Thurow's The Zero Sum Solution, not least because of its title. Michael Porter's The Competitive Advantage of Nations has something to answer for too, as it transferred his rightly esteemed model of competitive rivalry between companies to the stage of national rivalry.
Mutual gains from trade, hello! Americans will do much better to worry about their own investment in skills and infrastructure, and the quality of the economic institutions of the US, rather than fretting about China 'overtaking' them.
Even Michael Porter's esteemed model of competitive rivalry between companies tends to assume that this is a zero sum game.
Andrew
I think civilisation is all about getting out of the zero-sum mindset!