There's a new report in the series of research into the social and economic impact of mobiles I've been overseeing since 2004 for Vodafone. This one, Making Broadband Accessible for All, was a joint effort with the World Wide Web Foundation, looking at broadband in the developing world. We launched it yesterday at the LSE's POLIS research centre, and some of the discussion can be found through the Twitter hashtag #VODSIM (and in one case #bodsim!).
Use of mobile broadband is growing even more rapidly in some developing countries than the developed ones (843% in Kenya in the year to September 2010, for example), and is greatly understated by ITU figures that only count 3G subscriptions. The widespread access to mobiles means mobile data services will be key in getting the great majority of people online. Early users are making extensive use of social networks, mainly Facebook, and although it's obviously a global company, Facebook is also becoming a platform for the provision of local content.
The report looks at patterns of internet use by early adopters in Kenya, and at trends in content provision in East Africa. There are also papers looking at business and policy implications. The key messages are:
– in developing countries, near-universal online access will involve a mix of mobile and fibre networks. The policy debate is focused on high-profile big fibre investments but there could be better uses for the government funds involved, and at a minimum policy makers need to ensure there is a good environment for investment in mobile networks.
– governments should provide mobile-enabled services in their e-government offer but should also recognize (along with the aid community) that entertainment and social networking are the uses that will drive take-up to the critical mass at which network effects kick in and ensure the almost universal spread of broadband;
– the availability of spectrum is a key resource for getting everyone online. Many developing country governments, however, either hoard spectrum or see it as a source of government revenues. They should instead think about maximising consumer welfare;
– the regulation of mobile data services needs to enable a return on investment and ensure services are affordable. In mobile voice services this balance has been achieved by ensuring the cost of calls does not all fall on the recipient, essential for mobile to spread in low-income countries. But at present the customer bears all the cost of mobile data services. For both regulators and operators, there is a challenge to develop innovative pricing structures to make mobile broadband access affordable.
It's terrific stuff, and anyone already working in this area will know how dynamic it has already become in a number of countries – we're aiming to kick off some online debate on it next week.