In blazing sunshine in west Wales for the past few days, I've read a fascinating book, The Party, by Richard McGregor, formerly the China bureau chief for the Financial Times. It's an account of the role played in modern China by the Communist Party, and the way the organisation itself is changing as the country grows so rapidly into a far larger and more complex economy. I had never before understood the structures within the CCP, nor the distinction between the party – and its interests – and the government of the country.
Anybody considering making an investment in Chinese growth, whether on a large scale as a business investor or even on a small scale as a retail investor in a fund, would do well to read this book. For one thing, the party's lack of regard for legal contracts, securities laws in other markets and so forth, ought to be factored into any and every risk assessment. The party's own interests are paramount, and may differ from either the interests of China's commercially-run businesses and – certainly – from those of any foreigner. What's more, the interpretation of the party's own interests will depend on the outcome of personal struggles for power in a context of utterly pervasive purchase of influence, and the buying and selling of official posts. The personal struggles form a large part of the book. The near absence of ideological debate is striking.
I was left unsure what the prospects for both the party and China might be. It is evident that the leaders retain the habit of making a pronouncement and expecting to see it occur, with little regard for the consequences. But as the economy becomes massively more complex and entwined with the rest of the world through trade, pronouncement may no longer be sufficient for something to happen. Governments everywhere are finding that their job is no longer all that simple. On the other hand, the Chinese Communist leaders are a talented and – by definition – determined group of people well aware of the risks on the path ahead. The recent 12th Five Year Plan, declaring the importance of domestic consumption rather than exports, housing, and environmental and quality of life indicators, shows that awareness, whether or not it can be attained.
The Party does not pronounce either the dominance of China or its inevitable downfall – it is a more intelligent and subtle book than either of those genres. The changes this enormous country is going through form a massive controlled experiment in political and economic systems, and we will no doubt witness extraordinary developments in our lifetime. It has become a cliche, but we do indeed live in interesting times.