This is the title of a terrific new book in MIT Press's Boston Review series, whose format is an opinionated essay followed by several replies. There is also an associated blog. The author of Africa's Turn is Edward Miguel, co-author of Economic Gangsters which I posted about a while ago. He is, as William Easterly puts it in a foreword, one of a new generation of thoughtful and non-ideological development economists. Miguel's theme – and this essay seems to have been written before the extent of the world recession became clear – is that there is reason for cautious optimism about many African economies. He includes Kenya, which he clearly knows well, despite the uncertainties arising from the post-election violence there.

He is very sensitive to the risks, especially for those countries which depend heavily on commodity exports – not just because of price volatility but also because of their associated 'curses'. Economists think of course of the real exchange rate effects, and also the scope for corruption. But as Miguel also notes: “Where oil appears, there arrive the armed forces of the industrial states.” (p52) He is also concerned about the impact of weather on crops, as the climate changes, and proposes a specific type of aid, Rapid Conflict Prevention Support, which would go to a country as soon as there was a major crop failure. Nevertheless, he remains on balance optimistic, mainly because of political and governance improvements in many countries in the past two decades.

The respondents also make some interesting points. I was most taken with Olu Ajakaiye's points about Africa's over-reliance on unprocessed commodities and the need for industrialisation. While reform of farm trade is vital – and a scandal that the EU, US and Japan remain so protectionist in these goods – it is clear to me that Ajakaiye is right to argue on the need for diversification into more value added activities. Agri-processing seems the natural place to start to me, as the produce is there and the skills of local workers are not far from what would be needed. I think this every time I get one of the 'Out of Africa' packs of macadamia nuts on a BA flight, and actually have come to believe there is a case for some infant industry protection for this sector, at least as long as we don't get the trade reforms. David Weil comments that institutional structures in many African economies such as price controls have served consumers but obviously hindered agricultural production.

I also cheered, unsurprisingly, Ken Banks's comment on the role of mobile phones, having done so much work on that myself (see the relevant Vodafone reports I've been involved with, and some others on my own website). Finally, Rachel Glennester argues that Chinese direct investment in Africa is overrated but the availability of cheap Chinese consumer goods such as bicycles or mobile handsets for consumers has been important. (There was an interesting FT article recently on the import of handsets from Hong Kong to Africa.)

The format of these Boston Review books is very appealing – this one was an interesting and thought-provoking but non-technical read for a train ride from Manchester yesterday.  The price is just under £10 – I think they'd sell many more at stations and airports if it were lower, at a price point somewhat higher than a glossy magazine. I hope to have chance to discuss the idea behind the series with someone at MIT Press for a later post.