It's the time of year when the newspapers are full of year in retrospect and year ahead features, and there seems to be a general feeling that the major industrial economies are over the worst. Macro indicators seem to be showing signs of stabilisation, unemployment is nothing like as bad as feared, and the financial markets have been quite perky. Is it all too good to be true?
I certainly thought so after finishing The Great Depression: A Diary by Benjamin Roth, edited by James Ledbetter and Daniel Roth. Roth Senior was a lawyer in his late 30s in 1931 when he started a diary chronicling the way the Depression played out in the steel town of Youngstown, Ohio. It isn't exactly a page-turner – the diary format means there's no dramatic thread pulling you through a narrative. However, it is illuminating in several ways.
For one thing, the impact of bank failures makes one realize just how important deposit insurance and guarantees have been in limiting the devastation caused by our financial crisis. Banking is so fundamental to the economy that's it's alarming to reflect on how little change there has been in the regulation and oversight of the system post-crisis. What are policymakers thinking of?
The second lesson is that commentators and policymakers are so eager to say that the worst is past that they keep on saying it. Nobody at the time expected the Depression of the 1930s to last as long as it did. Maybe we're prey to the same delusion this time?
There are other highlights too. Roth was a Republican and it's very interesting to read a critical appraisal of FDR, so sanctified is his reputation now. Roth also used the experience of the long slump to teach himself the principles of value investing.
Anyway, the New York Times liked the book too. One to read on New Year's Eve before heading out for a party to see in 2010?