The Observer today has an interesting article noting a sudden outbreak of optimism in new books published in the US – including Charles Kenny’s Getting Better[amazon_link id=”0465020151″ target=”_blank” ]Getting Better[/amazon_link], reviewed here, and Steven Pinker’s new book, [amazon_link id=”1846140935″ target=”_blank” ]The Better Angels of Our Nature[/amazon_link]. Why, the article asks, do we feel so bad if so many long term trends – in development, in diminishing violence – are actually improving?

Well, it isn’t a new question, and my answer is that the source of certain long-term improvements lies in short-term instability, which people in general don’t like, and particularly those who lose out. This was the theme of my 2001 book, [amazon_link id=”1587990822″ target=”_blank” ]Paradoxes of Prosperity[/amazon_link], which looked at the structural economic change resulting from new technologies. However, it was published in September 2001, not a great month for a book making this argument, for the obvious reason. So although I think the argument remains valid, the world is always a mix of the good and the bad, and no mere economist can give the verdict on how they balance.

[amazon_image id=”1587990822″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Paradoxes of Prosperity: Why the New Capitalism Benefits All[/amazon_image]