One of the benefits of long haul travel is having a lot of reading time, and one of the books I devoured on the way from London to Denver was Rebecca Solnit’s marvellous [amazon_link id=”1841957453″ target=”_blank” ]A Field Guide to Getting Lost[/amazon_link]. Now, there is close to zero economics in it, but I was much taken with her distinction between lost meaning something familiar that has disappeared and lost meaning the realisation that what has appeared around you is unfamiliar.

Solnit offers a quotation from Edgar Allan Poe, referring to wider things but perfectly applicable to economic forecasting: “All experience, in matters of philosophical discovery, teaches us that … It is the unforeseen upon which we must calculate most largely.” The art of forecasting lies in not paying too much attention to the familiar, but rather acknowledging that one is lost in an unknown landscape. I hear the sound of [amazon_link id=”0141034599″ target=”_blank” ]The Black Swan[/amazon_link] flapping….
[amazon_image id=”1841957453″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]A Field Guide to Getting Lost[/amazon_image]