Political bubbles

The Adelman biography of Albert Hirschman, [amazon_link id=”0691155674″ target=”_blank” ]Worldly Philosopher[/amazon_link], is great but too big to carry around so I’m reading it at home, and on the tube I’m reading [amazon_link id=”0691145016″ target=”_blank” ]Political Bubbles[/amazon_link] by Nolan McCarty, Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal, & have almost finished.

[amazon_image id=”0691145016″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Political Bubbles: Financial Crises and the Failure of American Democracy[/amazon_image]

It’s long been my view that history is over-determined, looked at from today (under-determined of course, if you’re trying to predict events.) These three political scientists have another causal explanation to add to the list of explanatory factors for the Great Crash of 2008. As well as greed and fraud, toxic financial innovation, global imbalances, fiscal irresponsibility, gigantism in banking and all the other contributors, there is the political dimension.

The charge is that a combination of three political factors created the conditions for all those other contributors to financial meltdown to develop. The first is ideology, the pure belief that markets are good and government regulation bad; the second is the array of special interests hoping for an endless boom, especially in housing – the lenders, the realtors, the people getting cheap loans; the third is the American institutional framework, expressly designed to stop things happening rapidly, in the context of ultra-rapid developments in financial markets. The three interact in a pro-cyclical way, the book argues, hence the terminology of the ‘political bubble’.

Nobody in the political elite, on the executive or the legislative side, comes out of this book well. The authors even trace some of the rot as far back as the now-saintly-seeming Jimmy Carter – after all, the savings and loan debacle of the early 1980s had its root in his presidency. The book is equally scathing about the ideologically free market Republicans, Reagan and the two Bushes, and the differently ideologically free market economics team of the Bill Clinton years.

The focus is solely on the United States. This means there is more political detail than many non-American readers will either want or be fully able to interpret.

With that caveat, I found the argument persuasive. After all, there are plenty of other mature democracies that have experienced that combination of housing bubbles, Franken-finance, and political incapacity. The US financial markets have also hugely influenced global markets. It would be interesting to work through the same kind of argument in other countries. One might even add another layer of political sclerosis in the international context, adding a fourth ‘i’ for ‘international incompetence’ to the three ‘i’s making up the book’s hypothesis.

Summer reading

The papers all magically decided that this was the weekend to publish recommendations for summer reading. My holiday is still a few weeks away but it’s never too soon to start planning which books to take.

In my in-pile I’ve got some suitable paperbacks.

[amazon_link id=”0141030585″ target=”_blank” ]The Old Ways: A Journey On Foot[/amazon_link] by Robert Macfarlane

[amazon_image id=”0141030585″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Old Ways: A Journey on Foot[/amazon_image]

[amazon_link id=”0713998687″ target=”_blank” ]Iron Curtain[/amazon_link] by Anne Applebaum

[amazon_link id=”1849904936″ target=”_blank” ]Parade’s End[/amazon_link] by Ford Madox Ford (bought after the brilliant TV drama, and not yet read)

[amazon_image id=”1849904936″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Parade’s End[/amazon_image]

[amazon_link id=”0140449086″ target=”_blank” ]The Histories[/amazon_link] by Herodotus (a 2nd hand book also in the pile for some time)

That’s nowhere near enough so I’m planning to by some of:

[amazon_link id=”075381983X” target=”_blank” ]Building Jerusalem: Rise and Fall of the Victorian City[/amazon_link] by Tristram Hunt

[amazon_image id=”075381983X” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Building Jerusalem: The Rise and Fall of the Victorian City[/amazon_image]

[amazon_link id=”0670918989″ target=”_blank” ]Tubes: Behind the Scenes at the Internet[/amazon_link] by Andrew Blum

[amazon_link id=”1908526173″ target=”_blank” ]Calcutta: Two Years in the Cit[/amazon_link]y by Amit Chauduri

[amazon_image id=”1908526173″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Calcutta: Two Years in the City[/amazon_image]

[amazon_link id=”0241145368″ target=”_blank” ]The Infatuations [/amazon_link]by Javier Marias (I loved his earlier trilogy, [amazon_link id=”0099461994″ target=”_blank” ]Your Face Tomorrow[/amazon_link])

[amazon_image id=”0241145376″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Infatuations[/amazon_image]

Any other recommendations, folks? A strong preference for paperbacks, and some detective fiction ideas needed.

Words and the worldly philosopher

On the strength of the introductory chapter, I’m really going to enjoy Jeremy Adelman’s biography of Albert Hirschman, [amazon_link id=”0691155674″ target=”_blank” ]Worldly Philosopher.[/amazon_link] Adelman talks about his subject’s love of words:

“Hirschman’s work represents an effort to practice social science as literature. It is what makes him appear so original in style and content now the bonds between literature and social science have increasingly been severed. ….. [H]e made of his style a kind of rampart from which to warn us, without giving up on humor, of the perils of over-specialization, of a narrowing of vision, and of the temptation to fall in love with one’s own technical prowess and vocabulary, and lose sight of the vitality of moving back and forth between proving and preaching.”

[amazon_image id=”0691155674″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Worldly Philosopher: The Odyssey of Albert O. Hirschman[/amazon_image]

I also like Hirschman’s insistence on being wary about strong claims and grand theories, intended to free social science from the shackles of historical specificity – the kind of humility economists have been urging on themselves since the onset of the crisis, without quite managing to achieve it.

Like many economists of my generation – in graduate school at the height of the rational expectations/real business cycle madness – I was never taught anything of Hirschman’s work. The only book of his I’ve read is [amazon_link id=”0674276604″ target=”_blank” ]Exit, Voice and Loyalty.[/amazon_link] I’ll obviously have to set that right after finishing this biography.

[amazon_image id=”0674276604″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Exit, Voice and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations and States[/amazon_image]

Putting people in economic theory

Some books are hard to judge. I can’t decide whether [amazon_link id=”1107678943″ target=”_blank” ]An Economic Theory of Greed, Love, Groups and Networks[/amazon_link] by Paul Frijters with Gigi Foster is brilliant or barking. It looks appealing, an attempt to combine the good aspects of the theoretical rigour of choice theory based on self-interest with the realities of human emotions. Of course love and group identity shape our choices! The book has endorsements on the back from economists I greatly respect. Andrew Oswald calls it, “The most remarkable book I have read in the last decade…. a book that is intellectually taxing but unforgettable.” Jeffrey Williamson and Bruno Frey love it too. So embarking on reading this, I thought it was going to be in the rich tradition of the Adam Smith of [amazon_link id=”0143105922″ target=”_blank” ]Moral Sentiments[/amazon_link].

[amazon_image id=”1107678943″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]An Economic Theory of Greed, Love, Groups, and Networks[/amazon_image]

Instead, it’s a more difficult and theoretical read. It’s best explained in a blog post by Paul Fritjers, who says:

“[W]e take the stance of aliens looking at humans as just another species, with love merely one behavioural strategy available to that species. Blasphemous as this may sound, our goal is to apply the scientific method to the realm of the heart.

At the most basic level, we contend that love is a submission strategy aimed at producing an implicit exchange. Someone who starts to love begins by desiring something from some outside entity. This entity can be a potential sexual partner, a parent, “society”, a god, or any other person or abstract notion.From a position of relative weakness, the loving person tries to gain control over this entity.”

In fact, there are four core concepts, including the fundamental one of self-interested choice (‘greed’), in this alternative decision theory. They are love, groups (and power relations) and networks. These concepts are selected from all the other possibilities social scientists have suggested as important in shaping economic choices, such as social norms, freedom, identity, institutions and so on. How they are selected is not fully explained; the author says it follows much work on the explanatory power of each as a potential core concept but I am puzzled about the selection and the mix of categories – emotions, social structures, descriptors of status. Nor did I ever really understand how ‘explanatory power’ was tested. One could say that any of these concepts is self-evidently important in some way in individual choices and social outcomes.

A large chunk of the book sets out this rather odd idea that love is a generalised ‘Stockholm syndrome’ (as Andrew Oswald describes it on the back), a means of getting something from a more powerful person or entity. Apparently, neuroscience says love is not an emotion and nobody is pre-programmed to love anything: “A child needs to be stimulated to develop the ability to love… Unlike many animals, humans do not necessarily love forever what  they bonded with in childhood.” So the book goes on to explain the ‘evolutionary advantage of the love program’, and fits love into the mould of power relations. This takes the book onto a discussion of groups and power, and from groups to networks and markets. These sections touch on other, familiar areas of sociology and network theory.

Somewhere in the necessarily quite dense chapters on this wide-ranging material, I lost track of how the four core concepts lead us to a new choice theory. The final section of the book does look at how the new theory applies in familiar economic contexts. I focused on competition policy, and was disappointed to find that the consequence is to add not much to mainstream economic theory: “The view at which this book arrives regarding competition regulation is thus very close to the standard mainstream view in terms of the merits of any individual case. What is added is an understanding of who the regulator actually are and why they are there, what keeps them honest, where their power comes from, and what language affected parties will use in their appeals to regulators.” But how weird to add an understanding of the regulator and yet not an understanding of how big companies accumulate power and lobby regulators and politicians.

I think the book wants to rescue the fundamental assumption in economics of self-interested choice and make it relevant given all that we’ve learned about evolution, neuroscience and psychology in recent times. I thoroughly applaud this aim, because it is consistent with the evidence from evolutionary biology. Finding out how all this material across the disciplines can be married in a theory of decision making, on which economic models can build, is an important research agenda. This book is an ambitious effort to do so. It didn’t work for me, but now I’d like a lot of other people to read it and say what they think.

 

Statistical literacy for schools

At a governors’ meeting this morning, at the primary school where I’m the chair of governors, we discussed the school’s results in the Key Stage 2 SATs (for those who don’t know, it’s the national test children are required to take at the end of their primary school career in England, aged 10-11). The results were excellent. Our philosophy is that we aim for ever-greater attainment so we look for year-on-year improvement, every year.

However, at this time of year I always reflect on the inability of the entire educational, policy and political establishment to understand that the variability observed in a sample will always be larger, the smaller the sample. Ours is currently a small school with under 30 pupils in the final year, and as few as 24 or 25 might be entered for a test subject depending on their circumstances. Each child is worth several percentage points in the results table. Stuff happens, and one child might do better or worse on test day. There is no real meaning to be read into quite large year-on-year changes in the scores for a small school – and more meaning to be read into them the bigger the school. So I’m delighted by the big increases in our results this year (and one would never want to use small sample size as an excuse for a decline without really careful probing); but I take more comfort from the upward trend over three years, and even more from the other data that we look at as governors, and from observing lessons and looking at children’s work in school.

The bigger the sample, the more likely it is that extremes at one and and the other will cancel each other out when you calculate the average. This inverse relationship between variability in the sample and sample size is well-explained in Chapter 1 of Howard Wainer’s excellent book, [amazon_link id=”0691152675″ target=”_blank” ]Picturing the Uncertain World: How to Understand, Communicate and Control Uncertainty through Graphical Display[/amazon_link]. He gives brilliant examples of people drawing incorrect or at least unproven conclusions from their failure to take account of this relationship. They include the movement in the US supporting smaller schools (as he puts it, billions of dollars are being spent on increasing variance), interpretations of cancer “clusters”, supposed differences in intelligence or attainment between the sexes – there are countless examples.

I don’t think basic statistical literacy is included in the new curriculum for English primary schools – a shame when there’s evidence everywhere of its absence.

[amazon_image id=”0691152675″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Picturing the Uncertain World: How to Understand, Communicate, and Control Uncertainty through Graphical Display[/amazon_image]