The Beatles and class struggle

[amazon_link id=”0674504763″ target=”_blank” ]Inequality[/amazon_link] by Anthony Atkinson is terrific. I’ll review it properly when I’ve finished. Meanwhile, one thing I really like about it is that he is heading toward policy proposals rooted in a reasonably detailed structural analysis of how the economy works, rather than in abstract macro theory. You get a sense of this in the ‘Setting the Scene’ section from his references to Michal Kalecki’s Class Struggle and the Distribution of National Income and J.K.Galbraith’s [amazon_link id=”1614273251″ target=”_blank” ]American Capitalism[/amazon_link]. Yes, we are talking about market power and the political power to change the rules of the game that flows from it. If the way markets work is flawed, the macro outcomes will be flawed too.

[amazon_image id=”0674504763″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Inequality[/amazon_image]  [amazon_image id=”B0010JYWD6″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]American Capitalism[/amazon_image]  [amazon_image id=”0198285388″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Collected Works of Michal Kalecki: Volume 1: Capitalism: Business Cycles and Full Employment: Capitalism – Business Cycles and Full Employment Vol 1 (Collected Works of Micha Kalecki)[/amazon_image]

There are some terrific nuggets of information along the way. To get the UK’s Gini coefficient back to where it was in the 1960s when the Beatles were playing just using taxes and transfers – a 10 point reduction from its current level – income tax would have to rise by 16 percentage points. The political impossibility of post hoc redistribution using only taxation is clear. “This is why many of the policy measures proposed in this book are directed at making the distribution of market incomes less unequal,” writes Atkinson.

Not all numbers are equal

I’ve started reading Tony Atkinson’s new book, I[amazon_link id=”0674504763″ target=”_blank” ]nequality: What can be done?[/amazon_link] and already think it a much better book than the famous [amazon_link id=”067443000X” target=”_blank” ]Capital in the 21st Century[/amazon_link] (which for me was marred by the half-baked r and g business – see for example the Jaume Ventura slides here – as well as the lack of any practical policy suggestions).

[amazon_image id=”0674504763″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Inequality[/amazon_image]

Although not far into [amazon_link id=”0674504763″ target=”_blank” ]Inequality[/amazon_link], I completely and utterly agree with the following, in a chapter describing carefully the sources and character of the data (something else on which Piketty is actually rather weak – hence the challenge much reported this week from a graduate student at MIT):

In seeking to draw lessons from the statistics on inequality, we have to be confident in the quality of the data we are using. This is why I begin this chapter by describing and evaluation the sources of evidence on which scholars of inequality can draw. Such scrutiny is essential. All too often economists race ahead, drawing conclusions from figures that happen to be there, without asking why the data are suitable.”

Serendipitously, while reading this I’ve also been thinking about a keynote I’m giving soon at an OECD conference on [amazon_link id=”0691156794″ target=”_blank” ]GDP[/amazon_link] and the national accounts statistics in a couple of weeks’ time. All the thousands of studies and political claims resting on GDP growth figures are based on shifting sands, and we economists need to think far more carefully about what they take to be evidence for strong claims. There are some powerful examples in a paper presented by Samuel Williamson and Enrico Berkes recently at the Economic History Society conference.

After neoliberalism?

My journey back yesterday from the Royal Economic Society annual conference in Manchester was delayed for ages because some poor soul had thrown themselves under a train along the line. At least I managed to finish [amazon_link id=”0674725654″ target=”_blank” ]The Rise and Fall of Neoliberal Capitalism[/amazon_link] by David Kotz.

[amazon_image id=”B00SR5FNSY” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Rise and Fall of Neoliberal Capitalism[/amazon_image]

I’m a bit allergic to the word ‘neoliberal’, probably because it’s so often used as generic and blanket abuse of (among other things) all of economics. I’ve been accused of neoliberalism myself (to which the only sensible response is that the accuser needs to get out more if they think I’m an ideologue…..)

Certainly Kotz signals his own ideological views by using the term as his descriptor of American capitalism, but he does have a far more precise and meaningful definition than is the norm. He defines it as a specific “social structure of accumulation”, a “particular configuration of economic and political institutions, as well as dominant economic theories and ideas.” This is interesting, and I buy the general approach – it’s similar to (for example) Michael Best’s use of the concept of “production systems” in [amazon_link id=”0198297459″ target=”_blank” ]The New Competitive Advantage[/amazon_link], but ranging wider beyond the economic institutions of production.

Kotz sees the 1950s and 60s as a golden age of ‘regulated capitalism’ with strong unions and well-paid jobs for (male) breadwinners. He accepts that it had its own crisis, with sustained declines in profitability through the 1970s. Hence the scope for the arrival of ‘neoliberal capitalism’ from 1979/81 with Thatcher and Reagan.

Much of the book describes the development of the ‘neoliberal’ system after that turning point in terms of the broad outlines of the US economy – profit rates and shares, declining union membership, stagnant median real wages, the rise in household indebtedness etc. It does not cover globalisation to any great extent, which seems an important omission, nor does it mention technology or environmental sustainability at all, so the prism is quite narrow. Deindustrialisation is described more in terms of an attack on organised labour than the consequence of several deeper economic trends. However, the book’s analysis of the 2008 crisis in terms of the preceding financial bubble, and the way consumption was supported by debt, is surely not controversial.

Kotz does mention the role of ideas in economic theory and – more important in the long term – political received wisdom (the theory has moved on, but the policy world view far less so). He describes neoliberal ideology as “very strong” – clear, simple, apparently logical. Daniel Stedman-Jones’s [amazon_link id=”B00RWOZWD2″ target=”_blank” ]Masters of the Universe[/amazon_link] gives a much fuller account of the effort it took to cement the ideology over a number of decades prior to 1979, and highlights how much organisation it will take to change the prevailing world view. For I think this is a question of political and social organisation more than one of economic or political theorising.

Kotz argues here that the US and by extension the western economic system is in a state of crisis that will give way to a new “social structure of accumulation” whose shape is yet to be determined – it could be a revived neoliberal system. It will not be his preferred socialist system without a broad social movement, as at moments of crisis in the past such as 1945.

I would agree with Kotz that the prevailing production system or social structure is in crisis, but would emphasise more the fundamental role of technology and globalization. Not that a class-based perspective isn’t important. He concludes: “The path that will be followed in the years ahead cannot be predicted …. The economic changes – or lack of changes – that lie ahead will be the outcome of struggles among various groups and classes in the coming years, which will occur in the realm of ideas, politics and culture.” And surely the realm of the work place, public space and policy corridors too?

So all in all, I agreed with quite a lot of the analysis here while thinking it an incomplete picture. Still, the book irked me, no doubt because of my allergy to ‘neoliberalism’, along with its slightly plodding style. Reading it did feel a bit like being in a political meeting where you are washed over by a wave of abstract nouns. I know economists are on average pretty clunky writers so one should be used to it, but I did nod off over the book as my train trundled veeeery slowly through the countryside.

I wonder what Professor Kotz would have thought of the arrangement at dinner at the Royal Economic Society conference. There were two options for each course, and staff served each one to alternating places at the table. If you preferred the other, you had to exchange. Perfectly efficient and logical – surely only an economist could have thought of it? I’m tempted to do this every time I invite people round for a meal in future, unless that would be a bit neoliberal.

Instructions at the bottom - side payments not ruled out.

Instructions at the bottom – side payments not ruled out.