Information, information, information

Yesterday my dear husband (@ruskin147) interviewed César Hidalgo (@cesifoti) about his new book [amazon_link id=”0241003555″ target=”_blank” ]Why Information Grows: The Evolution of Order from Atoms to Economies[/amazon_link] for next week’s edition of Tech Tent (19 June) on the BBC World Service. I’m very excited about reading this book. I’ve long been a fan of The Atlas of Complexity, on which Prof Hidalgo has worked. Besides, here is the overlap of information, complexity and spontaneous order, computing and economics – what’s not to like?

Prof Hidalgo in the BBC's New Broadcasting House yesterday

Prof Hidalgo in the BBC’s New Broadcasting House yesterday

Economists will naturally think immediately of Hayek’s famous 1945 article, The Use of Knowledge In Society, which is cited in the introduction here. Although information asymmetries are huge in many areas of economics now, I still don’t think we work out often enough or in sufficient detail the implications of information mattering so much. For years – since the mid-90s – I’ve been saying to colleagues that information technology is a profoundly important deal for economic organisation and even now too often get the reaction, well we know how to handle a transaction cost reduction in our models so what’s the big deal?

Anyway, I’m immensely looking forward to reading this and will report back.

[amazon_image id=”0241003555″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Why Information Grows: The Evolution of Order, from Atoms to Economies[/amazon_image]

More to read

The catalogue from my own publisher, Princeton University Press, arrived in the post & is packed with books I want to read – oh dear, the in-pile is already mountainous. I did read the proofs of the new book by George Akerlof and Robert Shiller, [amazon_link id=”B00WAM14RE” target=”_blank” ]Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception[/amazon_link], and recommend it strongly as an alternative take on the fashionable behavioural economics. Among other enticing new titles are Martin Sandbu’s [amazon_link id=”B00WAM14PQ” target=”_blank” ]Europe’s Orphan[/amazon_link], [amazon_link id=”0691145113″ target=”_blank” ]Empire and Revolution: The Political Life of Edmund Burke[/amazon_link] by Richard Bourke, [amazon_link id=”B00WAM14OW” target=”_blank” ]Capitalism: A Short History[/amazon_link] by Jurgen Kocka, [amazon_link id=”069115922X” target=”_blank” ]Political Turbulence: How Social Media Shape Collective Action[/amazon_link] by Helen Margetts, Peter John, Scott Hale and Taha Yasseri, and Robert Gordon’s [amazon_link id=”0691147728″ target=”_blank” ]The Rise and Fall of American Growth[/amazon_link] (although we’ve all read all his papers of course).

[amazon_image id=”B00WAM14RE” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”B00WAM14PQ” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Europe’s Orphan: The Future of the Euro and the Politics of Debt[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”0691145113″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Empire and Revolution: The Political Life of Edmund Burke[/amazon_image]

[amazon_image id=”B00WAM14OW” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Capitalism: A Short History[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”069115922X” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Political Turbulence: How Social Media Shape Collective Action[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”0691147728″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War (The Princeton Economic History of the Western World)[/amazon_image]

But the really big news: my own [amazon_link id=”0691156794″ target=”_blank” ]GDP: A Brief But Affectionate History[/amazon_link] will be out in paperback in the autumn!

[amazon_image id=”B00WAM16BS” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History[/amazon_image]

Nothing inevitable about today’s inequality

A guest review by Gonzalo Viña

A great deal has been written about one of the scourges of our time, the rise of economic inequality in most parts of the world. Much of what has been written documents the phenomenon, deplores it and – as if with a shrug of the shoulders – offers little in the way to remedy it.

As the title implies, [amazon_link id=”B00WQRFC30″ target=”_blank” ]Inequality – What Can be Done?[/amazon_link] by University of Oxford professor Anthony Atkinson, not only documents the growing inequality gap of recent decades, but asks why we should care about it and, most importantly, what can be done about it. But the value of this book lies not so much in the recommendations but in the full frontal assault Atkinson makes on the lazy intellectual dogma that inequality is inevitable.

[amazon_image id=”B00WQRFC30″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Inequality: What Can Be Done?[/amazon_image]

Atkinson’s views deserve special attention not only because he was studying inequality long before it became fashionable, but because he harnesses the evidence to show that political choices rather than economics are at the heart of whether governments should tackle the widening gulf between the very rich and the rest.

Atkinson hits at the heart of the myth that inequality is somehow impossible to stop. He argues that we are approaching levels of inequality not seen for close to a hundred years because of deliberate policy choices made in the 1980s. By that logic, policy can again be used to reduce the gap. Politicians will face difficulties, Atkinson argues, “These constraints leave room for choice. It is not the case that ‘there is no alternative’.”

Atkinson is an economist, and this book primarily concerns itself with economics, but the underlying message is that the path towards mitigating the rise in inequality is political. The first and driest part of the book runs through the evidence, showing that most economically developed countries have become more unequal, taking aim at some of the more popular arguments deployed by inequality sceptics, notably that technology and globalisation advance, remorselessly sweeping aside any attempts by governments to stop them.

The book then sets out 15 proposals for action that set ‘directions of movement’ towards putting the UK somewhere in the middle of the world’s most unequal rich countries rather than at the top end of the spectrum. Atkinson notes that change takes time and some policies will be more effective than others.

Still, much can be achieved if we – i.e. our governments – put our minds to it. A more progressive income tax system, property and inheritance taxes, establishing a living wage, the re-introduction of a universal Child Benefit would make an immediate impact. The creation of a Social and Economic Council to take into account the social impact of economic decisions, greater power for trade unions or a scheme to make the state an employer of last resort are other notable highlights. Atkinson also points to evidence that suggests that revenue-maximising top rate of income tax is just under 57% leaving, “Room to increase the top tax rate from its present 45%.”

The final section of Atkinson’s book is a pre-emptive strike against all those who are likely to rubbish his proposals. Armed with a wealth of economic and historical evidence, Atkinson prepares the ground for the clash of ideas or “national conversation” that he says needs to take place. For those saying that Europe can no longer hang on to its social model in this world of globalisation, mobile capital and technological change, Atkinson reminds us that a great deal of the social security measures we take for granted today were implemented between 1881 and 1913, the last great age of globalisation.

Similarly, Atkinson says that there is no ‘smoking gun’ to suggest that taking steps to tackle inequality reduces economic growth or reduces the size of the cake. Leaving aside the questionable mix of metaphors, Atkinson suggests that much of the existing analysis on the effects of welfare and redistribution is generally too narrow and fails to capture the full economic benefits of such measures.

Taken together, the measures that Atkinson proposes involve raising an extra £31 billion a year in tax and spending just under £29 billion year. That realignment would help take the UK back to where it was before the ‘inequality turn’ that began in 1980. Atkinson refers to such steps as bold, but they pale in comparison to the £200 billion cost (in today’s money) of the government’s sale of local authority housing to tenants since the 1980s.

This says a lot about where the political centre of gravity is today. That voters rejected more modest proposals put forward by Ed Miliband at the last election shows that much persuasion still needs to take place despite the unfinished financial crisis that began in 2008. Still, what Atkinson does is destroy the myths that make it impossible for us to have a conversation about whether or not we choose to do something about increasing inequality. He shows that we can do things differently if we want to and that governments have the power to shape and tame economic forces that the existing consensus says are unstoppable and inevitable.

Like it or not, we live in a world where food banks are more common than investment banks. “Solutions to the problems lie in our own hands.”  Thanks to this book, we should now be able to have a conversation about whether or not we choose to do something about it.

Gonzalo works as an adviser on Oxfam’s inequality campaign and views expressed here are his own. This article was originally published in Disclaimer Magazine.

[amazon_link id=”0674504763″ target=”_blank” ]Inequality[/amazon_link] was reviewed previously on this blog, and has been reviewed elsewhere including here in The Economist.

The future of free enterprise?

The proofs of a new book out this week [amazon_link id=”1137482567″ target=”_blank” ]A Time for Choosing: Free Enterprise in 21st Century Britain[/amazon_link] just arrived. It’s edited by Kwasi Kwarteng, Ryan Bourne and Jonathan Dupont of the Free Enterprise Group and is a game of two halves: how to reform the state and how to improve the market.

[amazon_image id=”1137482567″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]A Time for Choosing: Free Enterprise in Twenty-First Century Britain[/amazon_image]

I’ve not read the book but the question that comes to mind paging through is whether there is anything very new in the policy suggestions? The first chapter on ‘The Architecture of Government’ ends with four recommendations: axe half of the Whitehall departments and outsource administration; regionalise the national minimum wage and look at fiscal decentralisation; have a balanced budget rule and no discretionary fiscal policy; stop using official forecasts of GDP and instead use prediction market forecasts. Of these, the fourth is a subset of the first (outsource a Treasury function), and the second is the only really new element among a standard set of conservative preferences. I for one would welcome a serious look at economic decentralisation.

The final chapter, in the markets section, is called ‘Crossroads’ and it recommends: build more (private) housing and airport capacity in London; have a market for immigration visas; renegotiate EU treaties to remove labour market regulation; lower corporation tax and phase out other business taxes. The first of these is controversial across the political spectrum; the others, again, not new ideas. In this half of the book I was disappointed that there is little about making competition policy tougher so markets can work better, although it does advocate account number portability in banking (where there is too little competition) and an end to the compulsory BBC licence fee (an industry where there is already substantial competition so heaven knows that this is meant to achieve).

Anyway, I’ll read it more carefully. There are some interesting policy suggestions in each chapter – some more radical than others. There will be useful material in it for students. But my first impression is that it’s a clear (and well-written) statement of a rather well known world view, covering familiar Westminster territory. It would be more interesting to have the free market take on, say, competition in digital markets, or privacy and surveillance, or a genuinely radical market perspective on the NHS (not covered at all as far as I can see).

It also makes the standard ‘free market’ assumption that the market and the state occupy mutually exclusive territory, so for better markets you need less state. That’s a profound error. We need better both.

Yes, it is worth reading more about Keynes

There are many books about Keynes, and I’ve read quite a few of them. The first was Roy Harrod’s authorised biography, [amazon_link id=”0140214402″ target=”_blank” ]The Life of John Maynard Keynes[/amazon_link], set for me to read the summer before going to university. It was coy about his personal life but a good introduction to the economics. Later I read the superb [amazon_link id=”033357379X” target=”_blank” ]three volume biography[/amazon_link] by Robert Skidelsky, since shortened into a one volume version, and followed up with [amazon_link id=”0141043601″ target=”_blank” ]Keynes: Return of the Master[/amazon_link]. More recently there was the excellent [amazon_link id=”0674057759″ target=”_blank” ]Capitalist Revolutionary[/amazon_link] by Roger Backhouse and Bradley Bateman, and [amazon_link id=”026202831X” target=”_blank” ]Keynes: Useful Economics for the World Economy [/amazon_link]by Temin and Vines. And on Keynes’s role in the post-war international monetary order another two terrific books, Benn Steil’s [amazon_link id=”0691149097″ target=”_blank” ]The Battle of Bretton Woods[/amazon_link] and Ed Conway’s [amazon_link id=”034913961X” target=”_blank” ]The Summit[/amazon_link].

[amazon_image id=”0393300242″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Life of John Maynard Keynes[/amazon_image]  [amazon_image id=”0141043601″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Keynes: The Return of the Master[/amazon_image]  [amazon_image id=”0674057759″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Capitalist Revolutionary: John Maynard Keynes[/amazon_image]

[amazon_image id=”026202831X” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Keynes: Useful Economics for the World Economy[/amazon_image]  [amazon_image id=”0691149097″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White, and the Making of a New World Order (Council on Foreign Relations Books (Princeton University Press))[/amazon_image]  [amazon_image id=”034913961X” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Summit: The Biggest Battle of the Second World War – fought behind closed doors[/amazon_image]

The latest to join the list is [amazon_link id=”000751980X” target=”_blank” ]Universal Man: The Seven Lives of John Maynard Keynes[/amazon_link] by Richard Davenport-Hines. And although it’s familiar territory, I did enjoy reading it and found some new insights. This is not just because there is a whole chapter on Keynes’s sex life, not the focus of previous books. The section about the Versailles Treaty prompted reflection, in the current European context – and I hadn’t before known that The Economic Consequences of the Peace had influenced T.S.Eliot’s [amazon_link id=”0871407175″ target=”_blank” ]The Waste Land[/amazon_link]. The section on the Macmillan Report sent me to the trade statistics, claiming the UK hadn’t had a trade in goods surplus between 1822 and 1934 – a glance at the Bank of England’s Three Centuries of Data resource suggests this is largely true, bar odd years. There is a great vignette of Stone and Meade working on the first national income accounts in a Treasury cubby hole during the war with, literally, a quill pen and a hand calculator.

[amazon_image id=”B00LZGBGM4″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Universal Man: The Seven Lives of John Maynard Keynes[/amazon_image]

I also liked the chapter on Keynes’s role in the arts. There’s much about him that is unappealing to me – the Eton and Bloomsbury poshness and superiority. But his success in bringing the highest quality, most ambitious arts to the people redeems that, through the establishment of the Arts Council and other interventions. It’s amusing to read that Customs & Excise taxed entertainment but not art (cinema and popular plays but not opera) and had a tussle with Keynes over whether Euripides and Ibsen should be considered ‘entertainments’ and so liable to tax. Keynes was also keen for the BBC to ensure its arts broadcasts covered the whole of the country, not just metropolitan works, when its regional broadcasts resumed after the war. “Nothing can be more damaging than the excessive prestige of metropolitan standards and fashions.” Indeed.

And I hadn’t known Keynes helped the Archbishop of Canterbury, William Temple, write the marvellously radical economic parts of his 1942 bestseller [amazon_link id=”B001KPS6YG” target=”_blank” ]Christianity and the Social Order[/amazon_link]: minimum housing, education and employment standards, regional devolution, worker representatives on company boards, nationalisation of the banks, public ownership of land for development for housing, and restrictions on mortgage borrowing. The book sold 139,000 copies and Davenmport-Hines calls it, “Perhaps the most read Keynesian tract of all.” It sounds a radical programme now, as it evidently was in 1945 as well.

[amazon_image id=”B00SLTKX04″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Christianity and Social Order: Written by William Temple, 1984 Edition, (New Ed) Publisher: Shepheard-Walwyn (Publishers) Ltd [Paperback][/amazon_image]