War, peace and economics

I finally read Margaret MacMillan’s magnificent [amazon_link id=”1846682738″ target=”_blank” ]The War That Ended Peace[/amazon_link] (a book big enough that I waited for the paperback).

[amazon_image id=”1846682738″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The War that Ended Peace: How Europe abandoned peace for the First World War[/amazon_image]

For obvious reasons, looking at the rise of nationalism and populism now, people are doing comparisons between the 1930s and now, but this book makes it clear there are some parallels as well with the first decade or so of the 20th century. Differences too – thankfully, we have the opposite of a military spending arms race at the moment. But MacMillan underlines the lack of comfort to be derived from the argument that nationalism is too costly in economic terms to get out of hand: “Trade and investment between many of the belligerents were increasing in the year before 1914. Britain and Germany indeed were each other’s largest trading partner. … Bankers and businessmen involved in exports and imports generally looked at the prospect of a major war with dismay; it would bring high taxes, disrupt trade, and cause them severe losses.” Few thought it would come to that. As Keynes famously wrote, in [amazon_link id=”1505906482″ target=”_blank” ]The Economic Consequences of the Peace[/amazon_link]:

“The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, in such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably expect their early delivery upon his doorstep; he could at the same moment and by the same means adventure his wealth in the natural resources and new enterprises of any quarter of the world, and share, without exertion or even trouble, in their prospective fruits and advantages; or he could decide to couple the security of his fortunes with the good faith of the townspeople of any substantial municipality in any continent that fancy or information might recommend. He could secure forthwith, if he wished it, cheap and comfortable means of transit to any country or climate without passport or other formality, could despatch his servant to the neighboring office of a bank for such supply of the precious metals as might seem convenient, and could then proceed abroad to foreign quarters, without knowledge of their religion, language, or customs, bearing coined wealth upon his person, and would consider himself greatly aggrieved and much surprised at the least interference. But, most important of all, he regarded this state of affairs as normal, certain, and permanent, except in the direction of further improvement, and any deviation from it as aberrant, scandalous, and avoidable. The projects and politics of militarism and imperialism, of racial and cultural rivalries, of monopolies, restrictions, and exclusion, which were to play the serpent to this paradise, were little more than the amusements of his daily newspaper, and appeared to exercise almost no influence at all on the ordinary course of social and economic life, the internationalization of which was nearly complete in practice.”

[amazon_link id=”1846682738″ target=”_blank” ]The War That Ended Peace[/amazon_link] is a wonderful book. Although there were many places and times at which people could have made different choices, it shows the first world war to have been a true tragedy, a disaster almost bound to happen given the history and context of Europe at the dawn of the 20th century, even though almost all Europeans found it hard to believe a generalised armed conflict would happen.

Historical parallels can and are overdone, but they are still important because every statement, every choice, made about Europe and its nations is shaping the history and context of the future. I am one of the 90% of economists believing Brexit would be damaging for the UK economy, for years. But it isn’t all about the economy, unfortunately.

Forum reading

I’ve been attending the OECD Forum this week, and as ever have met many interesting people. I always note at a conference the books people are talking about, as it can be zeitgeisty. So here are the ones I picked up this time.

Cesar Hidalgo – himself author of the fascinating [amazon_link id=”0141978023″ target=”_blank” ]Why Information Grows[/amazon_link] – highly recommended [amazon_link id=”0316306088″ target=”_blank” ]Disrupted[/amazon_link] by Dan Lyons.

[amazon_image id=”0141978023″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Why Information Grows: The Evolution of Order, from Atoms to Economies[/amazon_image]  [amazon_image id=”B01CV0WC7U” link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Disrupted: Ludicrous Misadventures in the Tech Start-up Bubble[/amazon_image]

I met two authors talking about their books, Philippe Legrain on [amazon_link id=”1782924809″ target=”_blank” ]European Spring[/amazon_link]. And Pedro Domingos, author of [amazon_link id=”0241004543″ target=”_blank” ]The Master Algorithm[/amazon_link]. Quote of the Forum came from the latter: “Algorithms are only human.”

[amazon_image id=”1782924809″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]European Spring: Why Our Economies and Politics are in a Mess – and How to Put Them Right[/amazon_image] [amazon_image id=”0241004543″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]The Master Algorithm: How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World[/amazon_image]

One session was shaped around a book by Peter Diamandis, [amazon_link id=”1501105248″ target=”_blank” ]Bold[/amazon_link]. Not so sure I’ll read this one as I wasn’t crazy about his previous one, [amazon_link id=”145161683X” target=”_blank” ]Abundance[/amazon_link]. Too breathless for someone nerdy like me. But I know many people liked it.

[amazon_image id=”1501105248″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Bold: How to Go Big, Create Wealth and Impact the World[/amazon_image]

There were some ‘Meet the Author’ sessions I didn’t get to, including Paul Mason on his [amazon_link id=”0141975296″ target=”_blank” ]Postcapitalism[/amazon_link] and Brooke Harrington on [amazon_link id=”0674743806″ target=”_blank” ]Capital Without Borders[/amazon_link].