Starfish economics

I’ve been reading Tyler Cowen’s new book, [amazon_link id=”0525953736″ target=”_blank” ]Average is Over[/amazon_link], and will post a review next week. As a taster, though, here is a comment from the short section on the state of economics:

“Economics is becoming less like Einstein or Euclid and more like studying the digestive system of a starfish.”

This intriguing description of the subject comes in the context of a chapter on how technology is changing science in general. For economics, the changes mean much more data and higher standards for empirical research, alongside a recognition of the complexity of the analysis or theory required. Field experiments, RCTs and laboratory experiments are where the action is in terms of scientific progress.

[amazon_image id=”0525953736″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Average Is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation[/amazon_image]

I agree with the direction of this argument but am a bit more pessimistic about the extent to which these changes have a grip on the profession in general. A lot of economists are still not very interested in starfish guts.

Popular economists

I’m taking part in a panel discussion on “Disseminating Economic Research in the Policy Debate” at the European Economic Association and Econometric Society Congress next month. Starting to think about what I’ll need to think about to prepare, I picked up [amazon_link id=”0262025620″ target=”_blank” ]Lives of the Laureates: Eighteen Nobel economists[/amazon_link] edited by William Breit and Barry Hirsch. I have the 4th (2005) edition of this interesting series.

[amazon_image id=”0262025620″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Lives of the Laureates: Eighteen Nobel Economists[/amazon_image]

The series has got up to 23 Nobel economists now.

[amazon_image id=”0262012766″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Lives of the Laureates: Twenty-Three Nobel Economists[/amazon_image]

Some common themes stand out – the drive to contribute to making it a better world, the sense of being dismissed or disregarded by peers, but also in many cases either the ambition or the actuality of contributing to public debate in an accessible way.

For example, Gary Becker here describes getting a call from Business Week asking him to contribute a regular column, and not turning down the invitation, on the advice of his wife. He says: “It was hard for me to learn how to write a popular column. Writing short requires far more effort than writing long….. I do not know why they asked me, to tell the truth, but the experience has been great for me. It has taught me how to express economic ideas in a simple and non-technical way. I will make the assertion that every single important economic idea can be stated simply. … And when people state that an ideas is too complicated to state simply, it usually means they do not know how to state it simply, sometimes because they do not fully understand it.”

I wholeheartedly agree. Blogging and social media have given all academic economists the opportunity to write for the public, and I applaud the ones who can combine their scholarly work with the important work of communicating important ideas simply. Becker has taken to the online world, with the excellent Becker-Posner blog, always worth a read.

Words and the worldly philosopher

On the strength of the introductory chapter, I’m really going to enjoy Jeremy Adelman’s biography of Albert Hirschman, [amazon_link id=”0691155674″ target=”_blank” ]Worldly Philosopher.[/amazon_link] Adelman talks about his subject’s love of words:

“Hirschman’s work represents an effort to practice social science as literature. It is what makes him appear so original in style and content now the bonds between literature and social science have increasingly been severed. ….. [H]e made of his style a kind of rampart from which to warn us, without giving up on humor, of the perils of over-specialization, of a narrowing of vision, and of the temptation to fall in love with one’s own technical prowess and vocabulary, and lose sight of the vitality of moving back and forth between proving and preaching.”

[amazon_image id=”0691155674″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Worldly Philosopher: The Odyssey of Albert O. Hirschman[/amazon_image]

I also like Hirschman’s insistence on being wary about strong claims and grand theories, intended to free social science from the shackles of historical specificity – the kind of humility economists have been urging on themselves since the onset of the crisis, without quite managing to achieve it.

Like many economists of my generation – in graduate school at the height of the rational expectations/real business cycle madness – I was never taught anything of Hirschman’s work. The only book of his I’ve read is [amazon_link id=”0674276604″ target=”_blank” ]Exit, Voice and Loyalty.[/amazon_link] I’ll obviously have to set that right after finishing this biography.

[amazon_image id=”0674276604″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Exit, Voice and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations and States[/amazon_image]

Putting people in economic theory

Some books are hard to judge. I can’t decide whether [amazon_link id=”1107678943″ target=”_blank” ]An Economic Theory of Greed, Love, Groups and Networks[/amazon_link] by Paul Frijters with Gigi Foster is brilliant or barking. It looks appealing, an attempt to combine the good aspects of the theoretical rigour of choice theory based on self-interest with the realities of human emotions. Of course love and group identity shape our choices! The book has endorsements on the back from economists I greatly respect. Andrew Oswald calls it, “The most remarkable book I have read in the last decade…. a book that is intellectually taxing but unforgettable.” Jeffrey Williamson and Bruno Frey love it too. So embarking on reading this, I thought it was going to be in the rich tradition of the Adam Smith of [amazon_link id=”0143105922″ target=”_blank” ]Moral Sentiments[/amazon_link].

[amazon_image id=”1107678943″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]An Economic Theory of Greed, Love, Groups, and Networks[/amazon_image]

Instead, it’s a more difficult and theoretical read. It’s best explained in a blog post by Paul Fritjers, who says:

“[W]e take the stance of aliens looking at humans as just another species, with love merely one behavioural strategy available to that species. Blasphemous as this may sound, our goal is to apply the scientific method to the realm of the heart.

At the most basic level, we contend that love is a submission strategy aimed at producing an implicit exchange. Someone who starts to love begins by desiring something from some outside entity. This entity can be a potential sexual partner, a parent, “society”, a god, or any other person or abstract notion.From a position of relative weakness, the loving person tries to gain control over this entity.”

In fact, there are four core concepts, including the fundamental one of self-interested choice (‘greed’), in this alternative decision theory. They are love, groups (and power relations) and networks. These concepts are selected from all the other possibilities social scientists have suggested as important in shaping economic choices, such as social norms, freedom, identity, institutions and so on. How they are selected is not fully explained; the author says it follows much work on the explanatory power of each as a potential core concept but I am puzzled about the selection and the mix of categories – emotions, social structures, descriptors of status. Nor did I ever really understand how ‘explanatory power’ was tested. One could say that any of these concepts is self-evidently important in some way in individual choices and social outcomes.

A large chunk of the book sets out this rather odd idea that love is a generalised ‘Stockholm syndrome’ (as Andrew Oswald describes it on the back), a means of getting something from a more powerful person or entity. Apparently, neuroscience says love is not an emotion and nobody is pre-programmed to love anything: “A child needs to be stimulated to develop the ability to love… Unlike many animals, humans do not necessarily love forever what  they bonded with in childhood.” So the book goes on to explain the ‘evolutionary advantage of the love program’, and fits love into the mould of power relations. This takes the book onto a discussion of groups and power, and from groups to networks and markets. These sections touch on other, familiar areas of sociology and network theory.

Somewhere in the necessarily quite dense chapters on this wide-ranging material, I lost track of how the four core concepts lead us to a new choice theory. The final section of the book does look at how the new theory applies in familiar economic contexts. I focused on competition policy, and was disappointed to find that the consequence is to add not much to mainstream economic theory: “The view at which this book arrives regarding competition regulation is thus very close to the standard mainstream view in terms of the merits of any individual case. What is added is an understanding of who the regulator actually are and why they are there, what keeps them honest, where their power comes from, and what language affected parties will use in their appeals to regulators.” But how weird to add an understanding of the regulator and yet not an understanding of how big companies accumulate power and lobby regulators and politicians.

I think the book wants to rescue the fundamental assumption in economics of self-interested choice and make it relevant given all that we’ve learned about evolution, neuroscience and psychology in recent times. I thoroughly applaud this aim, because it is consistent with the evidence from evolutionary biology. Finding out how all this material across the disciplines can be married in a theory of decision making, on which economic models can build, is an important research agenda. This book is an ambitious effort to do so. It didn’t work for me, but now I’d like a lot of other people to read it and say what they think.

 

Brave and humble economists

Someone on Twitter (@kestontnt) sent me a link to an article on The Economics of Courage by INET’s Robert Johnson in a recent issue of the OECD Observer. The courage it calls for is that required to stand out against the conventional wisdom, which is what INET is all about of course. I’m optimistic that the conventional wisdom in economics is shifting significantly, although maybe that’s because last week was such an encouraging one, with a workshop led by Wendy Carlin on INET’s new CORE curriculum programme, and a fabulous session at the Rethinking Economics conference.

Robert Johnson’s article cites HL Mencken’s well-known essay on ‘The Dismal Science’ (in [amazon_link id=”1440083754″ target=”_blank” ]Prejudices, 3rd series[/amazon_link]) on a brave Professor Nearing who was kicked out of the University of Pennsylvania for daring to challenge the status quo; and also a book I don’t know, by Norbert Häring and Niall Douglas, [amazon_link id=”0857284592″ target=”_blank” ]Economists and the Powerful: Convenient Theories, Distorted Facts, Ample Rewards[/amazon_link].

[amazon_image id=”0857284592″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Economists and the Powerful: Convenient Theories, Distorted Facts, Ample Rewards (Anthem Other Canon Economics)[/amazon_image]

The sociology of any academic discipline involves insiders, successful in a discipline in its current form, who are resistant to outsiders suggesting that they’ve got it all wrong. There are also incentives against change in any existing system – promotion and success depend on publishing in the top journals, which want small advances on the existing body of knowledge; there is little reward for changing course materials and teaching methods whereas the time cost is large; for any individual caution is a better bet than radicalism; and so on. Against that, there is the intrinsic reward of intellectual discovery, the humility that really ought to arise from both the recent track record of economic forecasts and an appreciation of the consequences of simplistic ‘market knows best’ thinking – and a bit of courage. But refusniks opposed to the status quo have more company now than at any time in the past 50 years.