I’m about half way through Nassim Taleb’s [amazon_link id=”0141038225″ target=”_blank” ]Antifragile[/amazon_link], and although enjoying reading it, I don’t yet know what I think. I’ll review it later.

[amazon_image id=”0141038225″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder[/amazon_image]

Meanwhile, I loved this observation:

“Books have a secret mission and ability to multiply, as everyone who has wall-to-wall bookshelves knows well.”

It reminded me of reading once that books are a successful life-form because they replicate themselves so much. Coincidentally, the New Republic has this article on the way book publishing is not only surviving digital disruption but thriving. The healthy state of innovation in publishing is something I’ve written about before.

Most writers know that their chosen path is not going to make them a fortune. The exceptions are few – only a few are as successful as J.K.Rowling (a.k.a. Robert Galbraith, apparently after J.K.Galbraith, in her recent PR stunt with [amazon_link id=”1408703998″ target=”_blank” ]The Cuckoo’s Calling[/amazon_link]) or [amazon_link id=”0593072499″ target=”_blank” ]Dan Brown[/amazon_link] or, in our world, [amazon_link id=”1844801330″ target=”_blank” ]Greg Mankiw[/amazon_link] or [amazon_link id=”0141019018″ target=”_blank” ]Steven Levitt[/amazon_link].

[amazon_image id=”0141019018″ link=”true” target=”_blank” size=”medium” ]Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything[/amazon_image]

So it was with great sympathy that I read a lament by Guy Walters in the Literary Review about the expectation that writers will travel the country giving talks for free, on the basis that it might just increase sales. He contrasts writers with comedians – apparently Al Murray asks for and gets 70% of takings at the door. Mr Walters calculates that the Hay Festival took £5600 from ticket sales at a talk he gave, for which they ‘paid’ him half a dozen bottles of wine.

I know nothing about the Hay Festival’s finances. But there are two problems with wanting to get paid for book talks.

One is that event costs are high. I’m currently organising the 2nd Festival of Economics with the Bristol Festival of Ideas. Participants are paid expenses and a small fee, because on principle we believe they should get paid something whenever tickets are charged for. But ticket sales alone do not cover the costs of the expenses and venue hire; we need to raise a few thousand pounds in sponsorship to break even. (Almost there, but please get in touch if you’re interested in sponsoring us!)

The second is that there are lots of authors. Lots and lots of them. The well-known ones can presumably charge a high fee, like the well-known comedians, but the lesser known ones have virtually no market power. It’s supply versus demand and then some: like so many other creative sectors, superstar economics apply here. This is a common phenomenon with experience goods, whose quality is unknown before they have been consumed. This means consumers flock to the writers/performers whose reputation is already strong enough to guarantee enjoyment, rather than taking a risk on the unknown. To them that hath, shall more be given.

I do think writers should have expenses paid by event organisers, and a fee even if token when the audience is paying. There’s never any harm in asking. But most writers have to take part in the events for enjoyment, and a scintilla of extra public recognition that might help sales, and not for cash.

Yesterday I noted the resilience of book sales in the UK, with a big surge in digital sales and a small decline only in physical sales. The figures were for total revenues. Looking at the Publishers Association yearbook (the absence of an apostrophe is theirs, not mine), there are some interesting unit price figures too.

In total, for physical books, average price increased by under 1% in 2011 and 2012, to reach £4.28. But big jumps in 2009 and 2010 mean the average price has climbed 17.2% since 2008. So, more or less matching general inflation in a flat economy, which is good going for items of leisure spending. However, in most categories, the price increase was rather lower, and in fact prices of non-fiction and reference books have declined over the five years. But school book prices have rocketed by 83.9% in four years, rising from £3.08 on average in 2008 to £5.66 in 2012.

Not surprisingly, unit sales have declined (by 13.3%), but at the price elasticity of demand implied by the figures, the profitability of the relevant books – is it all phonics textbooks? – must have been pleasing. Unit sales were down across the board, and by much more in most of the other categories (fiction, non-fiction, children’s, ELT, and by a similar 12.9% for academic books). There isn’t a long enough run of data to be sure but eyeballing the figures, it looks like roughly a unit price elasticity in the other categories.

However, the annual gives no figures on e-book prices. It would be fascinating to know what the pricing patterns, and profit margins, are.